Episode 697 | 7 Predictions for SaaS Bootstrappers in 2024

Rob Walling:
I’m Rob Walling and you’re listening to Startups For the Rest of Us. In this episode, I talk through seven predictions SaaS bootstrappers should pay attention to in 2024. Obviously, these predictions might apply if you’re not bootstrapping, if you’ve raised a small amount of funding. I just like to differentiate between those folks who are trying to raise $50-million dollars in venture capital versus those of us in the capital efficient bootstrapped and mostly bootstrapped space. 

After I run through these predictions, I’m going to go back at the end of the episode, and I’m going to go back as far as I can stomach, probably 2013, and look at predictions that I made every year and go through them quickly, and talk about whether I think they were accurate. What we’ll find is a lot of them weren’t accurate the year I made them, but within a year or two those things came to fruition. It was really fascinating looking back at give-or-take 10 years of predictions. I believe there was a year or two that I didn’t make predictions, but I’ll save that for the end of the episode in case that is less interesting to you. 

In addition, if you’re interested in chatting with me at an upcoming MicroConf local or you have a strategy or a framework that you think other bootstrap SaaS founders should hear, we are always looking for founders to come out and share their expertise during all of our conferences and events. If you’re interested, head to MicroConf.com/pitches and share your idea with us. 

So with that, let’s dive right in to my first prediction, and it’s that in 2024 there is going to be a lot of opportunity in vertical SaaS. This is more of a continuation of a trend that I’m already seeing. If you look at the TinySeed companies that we have funded, we’re just over 151 at the time of this recording, a lot of them serve a particular vertical. So when people say, “Vertical SaaS, what does that mean?” Well, an example of accounting software designed specifically for construction firms. Construction firms is the vertical, it’s the niche. Versus something like QuickBooks that can serve every vertical, or think of podcast hosting or podcast recording, that is a horizontal SaaS, meaning you can use it in any niche. 

Just a few examples of companies that we’ve funded in the most recent batch, one is called TrainerMetrics, which focuses on fitness centers. We have Tiny Easy out of New Zealand that focuses on … Think of CAD software, but it’s for tiny house designers. Talk about an interesting and relatively small vertical. Retail Metrics is analytics for independent brick-and-mortar retailers. Mawi is project management for constructions firms across Latin America, and on and on. You can go to TinySeed.com/portfolio anytime to see these companies. 

But if you look across our entire portfolio, Anar and I have been talking about running the numbers, the majority of the companies we’ve funded, and I think it’s the supermajority to be honest, a majority is 51% and a supermajority is more than two-thirds, 67%, I think it’s even more than that, if I were to guess, I think it’s in the 75% to 80% range, of companies that we have funded over the past several years have been vertical SaaS. There’s so many reasons why vertical SaaS is more optimal, especially for bootstrappers. I called a lot of them out in Start Small, Stay Small back in 2010 and I talk about why it’s good to go niche, is really what I say there. But these days almost all of those reasons still apply about it being less competitive, about you don’t need to be the best marketer in the world, you just need to be a better marketer than the other folks in your niche. So I see this trend of vertical SaaS alive and well and continuing strong in 2024. 

My second prediction ties back to a company I just named, is that SaaS will continue to grow, and it will even pick up space in emerging markets. For instance, Latin America. That’s an area where we, TinySeed, have funded several companies who are serving the Latin American market. The interesting thing that we found is their price points often have to be lower just because of the way currency works and salaries, and the reason you can hire a developer for half the price or a third of the price down there is the cost of living is lower, so folks don’t have as much money, disposable income, and businesses don’t have as much disposable income. But it’s also much easier to market, or it can be cheaper to market and find customers, and it is also cheaper to hire in those areas. 

So if you’re based in Costa Rica, as Mawi is, they have a real advantage over a US company trying to come in and compete against them to sell to Costa Rican and other Latin American construction firms. They also know the space, they know the geography and everything, but we’ve seen a really nice uptick in B2B SaaS applicants who are in these more verging spaces. If you don’t know the space the first time you see it, you think, “Oh, well the money’s not going to be there. The price points aren’t going to be there.” But the further we’ve gotten into it, we’ve seen there’s real opportunity there. So that’s why I made it prediction number two. 

My third prediction is about Twitter. You might call it X, I still call it Twitter. Let’s be honest, Twitter is really struggling. The valuation is way down, it’s I would say under-monetized, it’s just not making enough money. It has been tanking, maybe in the bootstrap SaaS space or what do you call it, VC Twitter and tech journalist Twitter, it is still, I won’t say booming, but it’s still alive. In most other spaces, like all the other verticals that used to use it, I think of Dave Kellett who is the cartoonist I often mention on Comic Lab, he says it’s pretty much a ghost town now and it doesn’t work for them. So these comic artists that are trying to promote their self-published work, it’s completely useless in essence. 

So Twitter is by all accounts struggling, and my prediction for 2024 is that there is going to be a big moment of reckoning. One guess is that the bank or the equity funds that lent Elon the money to buy it will basically call it due and foreclose and repossess. You don’t know what their contracts say, but there’s going to be something there where they’re not going to just want to sit on this asset that is basically depreciating quickly. I forget what the exact valuation difference is between when he bought it and what it is now, but it’s really pretty scary. So there is a reckoning coming for that. 

I think that Twitter might change hands again in 2024, that is probably the ultimate prediction. Whether it’s that the bank forces a sale, and I say the bank, it’s the financiers, I don’t know if it’s technically a bank, but the financiers that lent Elon the money are going to call it due and either take it over or force a foreclosure sale to someone else, or Elon’s going to decide it’s not the problem. I don’t know. But I think Twitter is going to have a major event probably resulting in a change of ownership. 

My fourth prediction for SaaS bootstrappers this year is that subscription fatigue will continue to be a thing in B2C, but it will not be a big deal with B2B. You’re going to see complaints on Twitter, you’re going to see complaints on Facebook, whatever other social media you’re on, but it’s not actually going to make that big of a difference, because that’s what I’m seeing across the 171 investments I’ve made is that SaaS is still very much alive and well. It is the best business model on the planet, and that subscriptions are very much alive and well, and that businesses are happy to pay for it if you can take the headache away from them, you can solve a real pain point for them. 

So in other words, I’m saying that Once, which 37signals is doing at Once.com where they’re saying, “We’re going to write software that you don’t pay a subscription for.” That Once will not penetrate, that’s my prediction, they will not penetrate past the handful of nerdy developers who basically want to manage their own servers. I never want to go back there. I don’t want to build software like that, I don’t want to install and manage software like that. That is how we did it 20 years ago, and while I think there is a very small niche of people who will embrace that and say, “Yay. I get to pay a one-time fee and not have to subscribe.” I think that subscription fatigue in B2B, while we may hear people complain about it, is not going to broadly impact the adoption of SaaS. 

My fifth prediction is that no-code/low-code will professionalize, is the word I’m using, and what I don’t mean to say it’s not professional today, because obviously there are professional no-code and low-code developers, and obviously these technologies run a lot of apps, but what I mean is no-code and low-code are behind code in the sense of what about code review tools? What about unit testing? It’s funny, when I say “code review tools,” well, there isn’t any code, but you get the idea. There are automations that can be complex, and the reason you have code review is to make sure the code is going to work as expected and it’s maintainable. 

So what about no-code review? No-code and low-code review tools. What about the ability to have unit tests, version control to be able to roll back to prior versions? That is something that came about with development that these things … Version control before, I think the first time I ever used it was probably 2001 or ’02, and before then I know it exists, I know Visual Source have existed before then, I know that there was version control, but it just wasn’t as broadly used as it is now. It’s just an expectation. Unit testing really become prominent until, my memory is it was about ’06, ’07 maybe, and code review was not really a thing that we did back in the day. Actually, we did have to start doing it, I worked at a credit card company and for PCI compliance another developer had to look at your code before you checked it in. I remember that being such a big shift, and this was again in the aughts. 

So these things emerged over time, and code had been written since, what is it, the ’50s or the ’60s? Where we started writing codes with punch cards, I say “we,” I’m not that old, but where folks started writing code and code review unit testing and version control was nowhere near as ubiquitous as it is today. No-code and low-code have the advantage of being able to learn from code, from the software development best practices and the patterns that have been developed over decades. No-code, low-code have the advantage of seeing the arrows in the back of the pioneers, of folks who wrote code for many, many years. I think that will accelerate the professionalization of no-code and low-code. 

My sixth prediction is about AI, and really it’s that the obvious AI stuff, we’re going to be through that this year. We’re going to start to get into novel and surprising integrations with a lot of the tools we use, or novel and surprising new apps that aren’t just a thing that again is so obvious to build. So I think additionally, automated customer service is going to be something that’s going to continue to not be very good. I think it will get better with AI, but I was super frustrated on a website, I think it was a bank website the other day, and I just couldn’t get to a representative, they just wouldn’t let me. I was like, “I know that AI can not do this for me.” 

So I think it’s going to continue to roll out and it’s going to be spotty and not great, but I do think that AI is going to help us as software people build faster. It’s already doing that with Copilot, but it’s going to continue to accelerate the development of software. I don’t believe AI is going to take a bunch of developer jobs, I think this is the rising tide that raises all the boats. Unless you’re a real … developer and you don’t or you resist AI, or you don’t want to use it, it becomes this tool of augmentation that I think developers and builders and product people and all of us are smart to adopt. 

But my hope is that the hype of it … When we look back at mobile apps in the Apple App Store in what, was that ’08, ’09 as that emerged? Then SaaS started to become a thing, there was crypto around this time and blockchain was maybe 2015, ’16 as it first started. There was even the drone, there was VR/AR, there’s all these waves where people rush in, and AI certainly has been that for what, 12, 15 months now? Each of these has their lifecycle, and they have the hype cycle at the start, then it dies down, and sometimes, like I believe with AR and VR, it becomes cool. It’s a neat thing that you can use, although VR and AR are still not as widely adopted as we’ll see in some of my predictions a little later in this episode, but other times people just don’t adopt it. 

So blockchain, is that actually being used? If blockchain went away today, are there major parts of our world that wouldn’t function? Probably not. The adoption there just didn’t happen, versus mobile phones where the mobile app store and all the mobile apps that we have have just become parts of our daily life, for better or worse. The hype cycle, you can argue was it real? Did it change everything? It did change everything, but it just becomes a day-to-day thing. That is my expectation of AI in 2024, there will continue to a ton of VC money being pumped into it. It’s the new wave that allow more efficiency to be done. I hope the hype cycle does continue so much that tens of millions or billions, I should say tens of billions of dollars keep getting pumped in. Maybe they do. But I think AI is certainly here to stay, and this year we will see I think a continuation of that argument of like, “Is it hype? Is it not?” But see some real productivity gains and some real pushes forward. 

I know some people say like, “I’m not even using ChatGPT anymore.” You know what? I don’t use it that much either, but when I use it it has been really helpful to me. I was doing a brainstorming session with ChatGPT earlier today and it gave me a ton of new ideas and thoughts that I just couldn’t find in a search engine, and just weren’t in my head. When I framed the prompt very specifically, it gave me some great information. So I’m neither bullish nor bearish on AI, I think in general it’s a good thing. I think there’s obviously some ethical issues, and I think people just get a little too bent out of shape in both directions in terms of hating it or love it. I also felt that way about NFTs, blockchain, all that. But all that said, AI’s going to be a thing, and people are still going to be talking about it throughout 2024. 

My seventh and final prediction for 2024, I have no inside information, I think Stripe’s going to finally go public. The question is what does that mean for SaaS companies? Does it mean that they get on that 90-day cycle, that quarterly earnings treadmill, which I believe is the reason they haven’t gone public is because the Collison brothers are very smart and they don’t want to be on that push. They want to be more in control of their company, and the ability to manage it and not have to have Wall Street constantly breathing down your neck to tell you, “Increase earnings. Increase earnings. Increase earnings.” Because that of course leads to what are they going to do, raise their rates? There’s all kinds of things that they can start doing that are really going to piss people off. 

So that’s my big question is if they go public, will they be under the gun? So Google in the early days, if I remember, I remember them going public around 2000, 2001, you can correct me if I’m wrong, but in the early days I remember them thumbing their nose at the whole, “Every quarter has to be better than the last quarter.” But eventually that happened, maybe it took five years, maybe it took 10 years, I don’t actually remember. I haven’t owned Google stock since probably the first year it was public, so I don’t pay that much attention to it, but I do remember there was a shift from the “Don’t be evil” to “Wow, we’re really going to squeeze the money out of everybody.” When they really started screwing a lot of the organic SEOs and they started removing data from the ability to be able to rank in Google. It was obvious it was a big cash grab. 

So the question is if Stripe goes public, as I’m predicting, will that start now? Or will Stripe be able to hold out for a year or three years, five years before the cash grab mode that Wall Street eventually forces almost every company into begins? 

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All right, so those are my seven predictions for bootstrappers in 2024. Now I’m going to go back, I’m going to roll the calendar back to late 2012 where I made predictions for 2013, and I’m going to zip through these and just talk about whether I think they were right, wrong or right eventually. Like the person who predicts five of the last two recessions, eventually you’ll be right if you keep saying the stock market’s going to go down. So in 2012, making predictions for 2013, I predicted it would be the year of Pinterest, which it may or may not have been, but it’s just irrelevant now. So it’s funny to read that. 

That WordPress will become more prominent, and I would say that’s pretty dead on. Think about this, this is 11 years ago, WordPress was a going concern, but this is like a year into WP Engine, it was still very early and we didn’t realize that WordPress would run, I won’t say the majority of the internet, but it runs a hell of a lot of the internet. So I think that was a prediction that was pretty good. Subscription WordPress plugins will start, I do think this has happened, although it’s not as ubiquitous as I would have thought. I knew a lot of WordPress developers back then and I knew folks were tired of the one-time model and they were trying to get into the annual subscriptions, and some tried to get into monthly as well. It’s definitely happening now more than it was back then, but it has not grown like wildfire. 

Another prediction was more Google changes will hammer the SEOs, and I don’t just mean algorithm updates. That was me talking about Google just cash grabbing, so this is around the time that was happening. That was true, yeah. I stand by that one. Finally, for 2013 I predicted the startup bubble would become more evident, inflated valuations will continue to rise, either it bursting this year or next. That absolutely did not happen. The only bursting, there was a public market bursting for a month in January of 2016, and then up, up, up, up until 2020, and there was a big drop for a very short time. Then it just went up, up, up, and the big one that has actually lasted in the startup space is 2022. So think about how far off I was on that. I often find bear predictions, meaning predicting something’s going to go down, are usually way too early. 

So now let’s look at 2014 predictions. Ooh, this is where I start talking about Twitter, and so many of these were accurate they were just early. So my first one is Twitter will become profitable and piss off its users in the process, but it’s a solid opportunity for paid placement and promotion. So I don’t think Twitter has ever become a solid opportunity for paid placement and promotion, Twitter didn’t become profitable for several years after this, and I do not believe Twitter became profitable in 2014, but it was profitable for a couple years after it went public. I believe it was public for eight years before Elon Musk took it private, is that right? It was profitable for two of those years. So I’m a little early, but I think it’s a reasonable prediction. 

I predicted an Apple Watch would be released, although I called it the iWatch, and the Apple Watch did not release until 2015, so a little early with that one. I think there were some rumors or some buzz, so think of this it’s like December of 2013 I’m making this prediction. Next one for 2014 was that Concierge will become a requirement for SaaS apps in crowded markets. This was before White Glove, Concierge, customer success was just becoming a thing, so I 100% stand by this. It’s a little easy, I was on the bleeding edge of it as a SaaS founder myself and someone who interacts with a lot of folks through the podcast and through MicroConf, but I definitely called that shot and I stand by it. 

Kickstarter will have a major multimillion dollar failure. I don’t remember if that happened. I know there have been several of them, but who knows if it happened in 2014? Apple will continue to lose market share. I think I meant the iPhone. As history repeats itself 30 years later, that did not happen. Integration marketing will pick up steam as more companies offer APIs and become more connected, and I do think that has been a thing. I think that’s happened and integration marketing has continue to serve bootstrapped and mostly bootstrapped SaaS founders. 

All right, for 2015, Twitter will become, I made the same prediction again, Twitter will become profitable and piss off its users in the process. I figured if I wasn’t right one year, because obviously I wasn’t right in 2014, so I made the same prediction again for ’15. Another prediction was that video ads, namely YouTube ads, will be a big opportunity for cheap clicks in 2015. Man, I know YouTube ads are a still an opportunity for cheap clicks today. So I would say that’s a win. VR will actually be a hit with the early adopters set in 2015. There’s no way that happened. Until the Oculus Quest 2, even now is VR a hit? I play because my kids play and I want to be in games and hanging out with them, but I think it’s still iffy. It’s nowhere near as ubiquitous as I think … I think when I put “hit” in quotes, I think I envisioned more adoption than we’re seeing today. It’s getting there, it’s just taking a long time. 

Another prediction was we’ll see our first sub, $100 a year, consumer level, five terabyte cloud storage service. No idea if that took place. Certainly predicting that storage is going to get cheaper was a pretty safe bet, Walling. So maybe make yours a little more ambitious next time. The last prediction was we’ll start seeing 3D printers in houses of our early adopters friends. I think that one’s accurate, I certainly got a 3D printer probably in 2015 or ’16, we’re now on our second one, and we’ve had them around for years and loved them. I know a lot of my friends now have resin printers and the PLA printers, I’d say I was right about this one eventually. 

For 2016, I like these, so the first one is single round bootstrapping, AKA fund-strapping. That’s what I have in the notes for that outline. Single round bootstrapping, AKA fund-strapping, will become a common viable option. What can I say? I’m like Babe Ruth calling shots here. Yes, did it happen? That was my 2016 prediction, did it happen in 2016? Not as much as it happened in the years following for sure, since I think I make this prediction again in 2018 after I left Drip and started talking about why we started TinySeed. I started TinySeed because I wanted to take advantage of what I was already seeing in the space. I didn’t say I was seeing that in the space because I started TinySeed. I think some people get that backwards. We’ll hear from me about this type of prediction again in a minute. 

Another prediction for 2016, Twitter will become less relevant, returning to its roots, journalists and the Technorati, ripe for an acquisition. So again, that didn’t happen in ’16, but it happened eventually. Public markets continue to value companies lower than their private valuations, and that was true, although I think there was, what do you call it, an aversion for a while. But then certainly by the time we were at 2018 to now, maybe not to now, but to 2021 that was happening. Companies would go public at a lower valuation than their private valuations. My last prediction for 2016 was that VR will actually be a hit with the early adopter set in 2016. No, didn’t happen. 

Four predictions for 2017, there will be another high profile acquisition in the bootstrapped space. I don’t think that happened. I remember revisiting this one and saying it didn’t happen. Second one is startup crowdfunding will fizzle out. Lower and startups will use it, the best will continue to use their network and angel list. Kind of, right? I guess these days the fundraising environment isn’t great, and we saw a few higher profile crowdfunding rounds of startups, and frankly those haven’t gone well, at least the ones that are in our Twitter-sphere. So I would say, again, this was a 2017 prediction, so it’s now seven years ago, but that is what has played out in my opinion. 

I predicted a 20% or more US stock market correction, which did not happen. That didn’t happen until what, 2020? Then it recovered, and then really I think it was 2022 when that happened again. My fourth and final prediction for ’17 was the first consumer purchased package would legally be delivered with unmanned drones somewhere in the world. I believe I was making that prediction in December of 2017, and I think it happened that month. So I got a little lucky, also I was probably reading some rumor tables when I made that prediction. 

Now for 2018, 2018 will be the year of non-institutional startup funding, angels crowdfunding and ICOs. That was probably pretty close. AI machine learning will continue to be marketed as the next big thing, but will not deliver again in 2018. That was accurate. Now, eventually it delivered obviously. What would you say? It was 2022 I think was when OpenAI had the big ChatGPT reveal, but this one I was correct. I predicted in 2018 there would be an enormous crash in Bitcoin’s valuation, but longterm I was still bullish. Oh, yeah. Boy, there was a massive crash, so it was up around, it looks like it peaked almost at 20,000 in December of 2017, and it was down to 17,000 and then in ’18 it’s like 12,000 at the start of the year, and by the end of the year Bitcoin was at 3250 give or take. There’s peaks in the valleys, but so this one was correct. Me being still bullish I would say is correct, because as I’m recording this Bitcoin is at 44,000. So that was a good call back in ’18. 

My fourth prediction for 2018 was cryptocurrencies will be regulated by several large governments. I don’t remember if that happened in ’18, but it certainly started … We started seeing that in ’18, ’19 and ’20, and it would impact … A country would ban mining, and then they would regulate it in a certain way, and we would see the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies impacted. 

All right, now for 2019, four predictions. Crypto will have ups and downs, but no major boom in 2019, but I’m still bullish longterm. I think that was correct. When I look at the chart, it really was relatively flat. I guess it entered 2019 at $3400 US, and it left … No, I was incorrect. I guess it ended at $7000 US. So it did have, it doubled, it actually went higher than that. So bullish longterm, probably correct, at least at that point. But no major boom was not correct. 

I predicted 2019 would be the year of AR. Way early, still hasn’t happened. I predicted there’d be a Facebook antitrust issue, and there would be a rise of a new social network, and I would say no on the Facebook antitrust, and there were some legal stuff but not in the way I was thinking, and the rise of a new social network I believe … Did TikTok start getting big in ’19? So there’s a chance that I actually predicted that. I had no idea it would be TikTok, but I figured there’d be room for another. My other 2019 prediction, no joke, that Twitter would be acquired. So I predicted it in 2019 and it happened in 2022, so only three short years too early. 

Okay, just one more year, because I skipped 2020, ’22 and ’23 for making predictions. So my ’24 predictions were at the start of this episode, and 2021 predictions, which think about this, I’m making predictions December of 2020 so COVID is still rampant and vaccine’s not out until, I think it got vaccinated May of ’21, and some people got a couple months earlier, but really the vaccine was not available, no in-person events, sheltering in place, all kinds of madness. So I’m making that prediction with that in mind, and it looks like I have five predictions. 

First is privacy concerns will transform email marketing back to a more primitive form, and I would say not really. I know that open rates are harder to see now, I know that there’s a lot of stuff making email marketing harder, but I don’t think it’s been transformed. I still think it’s valuable and super viable, so I’d say no on this. I predicted in-person events will resume in ’21 with adjustments like social distancing and masks. That was true, that was me being optimistic because running MicroConf, I really wanted to get back to in-person events, and we started running them in I think it was September of 2021. So that did happen that year. 

My third prediction was that funding in the bootstrap startup space would continue to be de-stigmatized, I guess was it still stigmatized in 2020? I know that just a lot more people were open to it, and people don’t judge bootstrappers for raising money like they used to. They would call them sellouts and that kind of stuff, and I just don’t see that happening. My fourth prediction was that VR will become mainstream, probably not. I use it and I have friends who use it and I use it with my kids and we play games and this and that, but I just don’t think I would describe it as mainstream. 

My fifth and final prediction for 2021 was that the world will get back to normal faster than expected post COVID-19. My memory is that’s not true. I remember it taking a long time for things to feel back to normal, that even once we started traveling I was vaccinated, I wore masks. Having masks at events, it just didn’t make it feel normal. It took a long, long time for that to revert back. It was still six, nine, 12 months after that I remember people still … There would still be enough people at events wearing masks that it felt weird to be at the events, and it reminded you that COVID-19 was still such a thing. So I would say I did not hit the nail on the head with that prediction. 

If you made it this far, this is truly just a nostalgia play for me to walk back through some of these and to think, “What was the world like in 2012?” Or was it December 2011? Yeah, December 2012 when I’m making these predictions for 2013, to say WordPress is going to be prominent, and to look back now and be like, “Oh, my gosh. Doesn’t it run almost 50% of the internet?” But it really was different back then, it’s hard to get back in that head space. I don’t plan to do this every year, every prediction episode by the way, I just happened to stumble upon these old prediction episodes and I know that we used to revisit them every year, we’d make a prediction and then we would, in the next prediction episode, we would look back and rate our predictions, and then we’d make the new ones. I think I’ll probably just start planning to do that rather than going through all this. 

But nonetheless, I enjoyed the walk down memory lane. Thanks for joining me this week and every week. If you keep listening, I’ll keep recording these. My eighth prediction for 2024 is that I’ll ship 52 episodes of this podcast to you this year. This is Rob Walling signing off from episode 697.